Weekly Commentary
Though there was little movement among the key indicators this past week, we do need to pay some attention to the amazing disparity between new home and existing home sales figures. Even with a close examination, the distance between them is difficult to explain.
First, we should remember that the new home sales data, collected from new contracts by the Census Bureau, have a habit of needing repeated revisions as more data is collected in the future. Frankly, these figures are not tremendously reliable, though we can never write them off entirely.
The existing home figures, collected by the National Association of Realtors® from completed sales—and thus more backward-looking than the new homes sales figures—tend to move in a more conservative fashion. They tell us about the fairly recent past, the sales first written up 30 to 90 days ago.
So these sets of data are, to a degree, apples and oranges. But that doesn’t explain why sales of new homes would have increased by 16.2%, while sales of existing homes would have fallen by 2.6%. Obviously, there’s more to the story here.
Here are a few suppositions:
(1) The new homes figures have indeed been known occasionally to swing in as volatile a fashion as this, and we could be witnessing what Moody’s Economy.com termed an “economic artifact,” a bit of economic data that makes little sense.
(2) There probably is a notable difference in sales volume between new homes, whose builders are intent on reducing inventory, and existing homes, whose owners still want to get the best possible price for the property. New home prices, after all, declined by a dramatic 10%. Existing home prices are down only 0.8%.
(3) Further, the stress on reducing inventory shows up very clearly in the month’s-supply-on-market figures. For new homes, the figure has declined dramatically from 8.1 months’ worth of inventory in March to 6.5 months’ worth. For existing homes, the figure rose from 7.4 months’ worth to 8.4 months’ worth. (These figures, as you doubtless know, represent the number of months it would take to sell off current inventory at today’s pace of sales.)
Much is explained, therefore, by the different emphases in these two housing sectors. But much remains unexplained. Is the upward spike in new home sales a fluke, or does it suggest the approach of a stronger real estate market? Time will tell.
KEY INDICATORS
Gold $662.70/ounce [up]
Crude Oil (Brent) $68.74/barrel
[down slightly]
U.S. Dollar to…
Euro .7421 [down slightly]
Japanese Yen 121.65 [up
slightly]
6-mo Treasury Bill Yield 4.96%
10-yr Treasury Note Yield 4.88%
[little change]
30-yr Fixed-rate Mortgage 6.41%
15-yr Fixed-rate Mortgage 6.06%
1-yr ARM 5.81%
[HSH average rates: fixeds both down slightly; ARM down]
Mortgage Bankers Association Mortgage Applications Index
week ending 5/18
Overall
686.2 (up 1.6%; down 0.8%
the week prior)
Purchase Money Loans
438.1 (up 1.3%; down 1.4%
the week prior)
Refinancing Loans
2154.7 (up 1.9%; up 0%
the week prior)
Weekly Jobless Claims 5/19
311,000 first computation –
293,000 prior week (with no revision)
New Home Sales April
Up 16.2% - prices down 10%
Existing Home Sales April
Down 2.6% - prices down 0.8%
Conference Board Consumer Confidence May
Up from 106.3 to 108